The April 2012 China Monthly Leading Economic Index rose +1.9 and +0.82% to 232.4 (preliminary), another post-recession high. The China Monthly Coincident Economic Index decreased for the 2nd month in the past 4 months. Overall, continuing economic growth is forecast, but volatility and uncertainty has increased. Notable was electricity output and industrial output decreased.
Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing, said “The China LEI in April once again sends a mixed message. While the composite index continued to increase, the
strength in the underlying indicators was very much concentrated in bank loans and consumer sentiment. However, leading indicators in manufacturing and real estate sectors showed significant slowing in April. In contrast to the LEI, the coincident economic index for China, which looks at current economic conditions, fell for the second time in the last six months, with key indicators such as electricity production and industrial output declining. Thus, while the top line LEI growth continues to signal a moderate expansion ahead, the pattern of offsetting strengths and weaknesses among the underlying indicators suggests volatility and uncertainty, exacerbating weakening current conditions in the economy.”
China Monthly LEI The current April 2012 reading is a post-recession high.